Britons are worried about growing debts and shrinking savings now that their incomes have flatlined. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

Falls in inflation and interest rates could leave Britain better off this year, but at the cost of high unemployment

Private sector pay increased on average by just 3.4% in December, according to the latest official labour market data released on Tuesday, the same as the rise in inflation at the end of last year.

No wonder the vast majority of workers are feeling the winter blues. Their incomes, adjusted for rising shop prices, have flatlined, leaving them no better off than they were a year earlier.

The most recent surveys of consumer confidence reveal a dismal picture of households worried about growing debts and shrinking savings now that their incomes have flatlined.

There is also the looming threat of redundancy or more likely, the prospect of rival firms putting a block on hiring, which forces workers to stay in their current, possibly not very well-paid job.

Unemployment rose to a fresh five-year high of 5.2% in the three months to December 2025, the Office for National Statistics said, reflecting a reluctance among employers to hold on to staff with little to do, in the hope of better times, or hire new people.

Hospitality and retail businesses blame the government for increasing business rates. Professional services firms say their investments in artificial intelligence make them think twice before advertising new jobs.

Either way, at the end of last year, the UK employment market was a gloomy place for the average worker to go job hunting.

In this environment, there would usually be some relief courtesy of the Bank of England. Officials in Threadneedle Street would be cutting interest rates to give the economy a lift.

However, at its most recent meeting, the Banks monetary policy committee (MPC) held interest rates at 3.75% after a majority of the committee said they needed to be sure of eradicating rising inflation before they helped the economy.

The economy expanded by only 0.1% in the three months to December, indicating that the UKs growth rate was stagnant, much like the real wages growth of workers in the private sector.

One of the extra costs faced by homeowners since the pandemic has been the jump in mortgage payments once they switch fixed-rate deals. Millions of homeowners have left behind mortgages with a 1.5% interest rate to sign contracts for 4% or more, adding hugely to their monthly bills.

The Bank might have helped bring this cost down, at least for the many hundreds of thousands who will need to remortgage this year and also those who will in years to come.

Consumer confidence is forward-looking. People think about rising mortgage payments, job insecurity and the likelihood of a decent pay rise when pollsters ask them how they feel about their personal finances.

For Rachel Reeves there is the potential for a turnaround this year. The jobs data showed a rise in the number of people finding a job after a long period of inactivity. The claimant count also fell from a year ago, indicating that fewer people are claiming work-related benefits.

More broadly, inflation is on track to fall and once that trend is considered to be fixed by the MPC, interest rates will fall again.

By the end of the year, the UK could be in a much better place. But, if the cost of all this is persistently high unemployment, it is unlikely anyone will thank the chancellor.

通胀与利率的下降或使英国今年经济状况有所改善，但代价是失业率居高不下

周二发布的最新官方劳动力市场数据显示，去年12月私营部门平均薪资仅增长3.4%，与去年年底的通胀涨幅持平。

难怪绝大多数工人都感到情绪低落。考虑到物价上涨因素后，他们的收入增长停滞不前，生活水平与一年前相比毫无改善。

最新消费者信心调查显示，由于收入停滞不前，家庭对债务增加和储蓄减少的担忧情绪蔓延，整体形势令人沮丧。

员工还面临着裁员的风险，更有可能的是，竞争对手公司可能停止招聘，这迫使员工不得不留在当前可能薪酬不高的工作岗位上。

英国国家统计局表示，截至2025年12月的三个月内，失业率攀升至5.2%，创下五年新高。这表明雇主们不愿继续留用无事可做的员工以期待经济好转，也不愿招聘新员工。

酒店餐饮与零售企业指责政府提高商业税率。专业服务公司表示，由于在人工智能领域的投资，它们在发布新职位招聘广告前会再三斟酌。

无论如何，去年年底时，英国就业市场对普通求职者而言一片黯淡。

通常情况下，在这种环境下，英国央行会出手纾困。针线街的官员们将通过降息来提振经济。

然而，在最近一次会议上，该银行货币政策委员会（MPC）将利率维持在3.75%，因委员会多数成员表示需先确保遏制通胀上升，再考虑提振经济。

去年12月前的三个月内，英国经济仅增长0.1%，表明其经济增长率陷入停滞，与私营部门员工实际工资的缓慢增长如出一辙。

自疫情以来，房主们面临的一项额外开支是，一旦他们转换固定利率贷款协议，月供便会大幅上涨。数百万房主放弃了1.5%利率的房贷，转而签订4%甚至更高利率的新合同，这使他们的月供负担急剧加重。

英国央行本可以帮助降低这一成本，至少能为今年需要重新抵押贷款的数十万人以及未来几年有此类需求的人们减轻负担。

消费者信心具有前瞻性。当调查机构询问民众对个人财务状况的感受时，人们会考虑不断上涨的房贷月供、工作不稳定性以及获得可观加薪的可能性。

对蕾切尔·里夫斯而言，今年或将迎来转机。就业数据显示，长期未就业人群的再就业人数有所上升。申领失业救济金的人数较去年同期也有所下降，这表明申请工作相关福利的人数正在减少。

从更广泛的角度来看，通胀正呈现下降趋势。一旦货币政策委员会（MPC）确认这一趋势已成定局，利率将再次下调。

到今年年底，英国的经济状况可能会大幅改善。但如果这一切的代价是失业率持续居高不下，财政大臣恐怕难以赢得民众的感激。